How to lie with statistics

Like the number of Olympic gold medals, the number of Blue Flag Beach awards is used to boost national pride. In the Olympic games of 2012, the USA, with a population of more than 320 million, won 46 gold medals and 103 medals in total. For this reason USA is thought to be the first sporting nation in the world. You need about 3 million north Americans to find a medallist, and about 7 million, to find a gold medallist. At the same time, Hungary, with a population of only 10 million, won 18 medals, 8 of which were golden. You will find a medallist in 0.5 million, and a gold medallist in 1.25 million Hungarians. Olympic champions are about 6 times more frequent among Hungarians compared to north Americans. I think, this statistic is much more relevant to natural talent, tradition, infrastructure and investment in sports.

List of Olympic superpowers as the superpowers present it:

Rank	NOC	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1	United States (USA)‡	46	28	29	103
2	China (CHN)‡	38	28	22	88
3	Great Britain (GBR)*	29	17	19	65
4	Russia (RUS)‡	24	25	32	81
5	South Korea (KOR)	13	8	7	28
6	Germany (GER)	11	19	14	44
7	France (FRA)	11	11	12	34
8	Italy (ITA)	8	9	11	28
9	Hungary (HUN)‡	8	4	6	18
10	Australia (AUS)	7	16	12	35
11	Japan (JPN)	7	14	17	38
12	Kazakhstan (KAZ)	7	1	5	13
13	Netherlands (NED)	6	6	8	20
14	Ukraine (UKR)	6	5	9	20
15	New Zealand (NZL)‡	6	2	5	13
16	Cuba (CUB)‡	5	3	7	15
17	Iran (IRI)	4	5	3	12
18	Jamaica (JAM)	4	4	4	12
19	Czech Republic (CZE)	4	3	3	10
20	North Korea (PRK)	4	0	2	6
21	Spain (ESP)	3	10	4	17
22	Brazil (BRA)	3	5	9	17
23	South Africa (RSA)	3	2	1	6
24	Ethiopia (ETH)	3	1	3	7
25	Croatia (CRO)	3	1	2	6
26	Belarus (BLR)	2	5	5	12
27	Romania (ROU)	2	5	2	9
28	Kenya (KEN)	2	4	5	11
29	Denmark (DEN)	2	4	3	9
30	Azerbaijan (AZE)	2	2	6	10
	Poland (POL)	2	2	6	10
32	Turkey (TUR)	2	2	1	5
33	Switzerland (SUI)	2	2	0	4
34	Lithuania (LTU)	2	1	2	5
35	Norway (NOR)	2	1	1	4
36	Canada (CAN)	1	5	12	18
37	Sweden (SWE)	1	4	3	8
38	Colombia (COL)	1	3	4	8
39	Georgia (GEO)	1	3	3	7
	Mexico (MEX)	1	3	3	7
41	Ireland (IRL)	1	1	3	5
42	Argentina (ARG)	1	1	2	4
	Serbia (SRB)	1	1	2	4
	Slovenia (SLO)	1	1	2	4
45	Tunisia (TUN)	1	1	1	3
46	Dominican Republic (DOM)	1	1	0	2
47	Trinidad and Tobago (TRI)	1	0	3	4
48	Uzbekistan (UZB)‡	1	0	2	3
49	Latvia (LAT)	1	0	1	2
50	Algeria (ALG)	1	0	0	1
	Bahamas (BAH)	1	0	0	1
	Grenada (GRN)	1	0	0	1
	Uganda (UGA)	1	0	0	1
	Venezuela (VEN)	1	0	0	1
55	India (IND)	0	2	4	6
56	Mongolia (MGL)	0	2	3	5
57	Thailand (THA)	0	2	1	3
58	Egypt (EGY)	0	2	0	2
59	Slovakia (SVK)	0	1	3	4
60	Armenia (ARM)	0	1	2	3
	Belgium (BEL)	0	1	2	3
	Finland (FIN)	0	1	2	3
63	Bulgaria (BUL)	0	1	1	2
	Estonia (EST)	0	1	1	2
	Indonesia (INA)	0	1	1	2
	Malaysia (MAS)	0	1	1	2
	Puerto Rico (PUR)	0	1	1	2
	Chinese Taipei (TPE)	0	1	1	2
69	Botswana (BOT)	0	1	0	1
	Cyprus (CYP)	0	1	0	1
	Gabon (GAB)	0	1	0	1
	Guatemala (GUA)	0	1	0	1
	Montenegro (MNE)	0	1	0	1
	Portugal (POR)	0	1	0	1
75	Greece (GRE)	0	0	2	2
	Moldova (MDA)	0	0	2	2
	Qatar (QAT)	0	0	2	2
	Singapore (SIN)	0	0	2	2
79	Afghanistan (AFG)	0	0	1	1
	Bahrain (BRN)	0	0	1	1
	Hong Kong (HKG)	0	0	1	1
	Saudi Arabia (KSA)	0	0	1	1
	Kuwait (KUW)	0	0	1	1
	Morocco (MAR)	0	0	1	1
	Tajikistan (TJK)	0	0	1	1
Total (85 NOCs)		302	303	356	961

List of Olympic superpowers according to physical talent, culture, tradition and investment

		Rank of Gold Population	Population	Olympic rank	Gold population
		Mean	Mean	Mean	Mean
Country	Grenada	1	103328	50	103328
	Jamaica	2	2717991	18	679498
	New Zealand	3	4582280	15	763713
	Hungary	4	9849000	9	1231125
	Trinidad and Tobago	5	1328019	47	1328019
	Croatia	6	4267558	25	1422519
	Lithuania	7	2908227	34	1454114
	Latvia	8	1985600	49	1985600
	Slovenia	9	2066638	42	2066638
	Cuba	10	11210064	16	2242013
	Kazakhstan	11	17458500	12	2494071
	Norway	12	5165802	35	2582901
	Czech Republic	13	10538275	19	2634569
	Netherlands	14	16902500	13	2817083
	Denmark	15	5668743	29	2834372
	Australia	16	23845200	10	3406457
	Georgia	17	3729500	39	3729500
	South Korea	18	51342881	5	3949452
	Switzerland	19	8236600	33	4118300
	Ireland	20	4609600	41	4609600
	Belarus	21	9481000	26	4740500
	Azerbaijan	22	9611700	30	4805850
	France	23	66121000	7	6011000
	Russia	24	146267288	4	6094470
	North Korea	25	25155000	20	6288750
	United States	26	321006000	1	6978391
	Serbia	27	7146759	42	7146759
	Ukraine	28	42895704	14	7149284
	Germany	29	81083600	6	7371236
	Italy	30	60788845	8	7598606
	Sweden	31	9767357	37	9767357
	Romania	32	19942642	27	9971321
	Tunisia	33	10982754	45	10982754
	Dominican Republic	34	12957394	46	12957394
	Spain	35	46464053	21	15488018
	South Africa	36	54002000	23	18000667
	Japan	37	126910000	11	18130000
	Poland	38	38484000	30	19242000
	Iran	39	78339400	17	19584850
	Kenya	40	46749000	28	23374500
	Ethiopia	41	90076012	24	30025337
	Uzbekistan	42	30492800	48	30492800
	Venezuela	43	30620404	50	30620404
	Uganda	44	34856813	50	34856813
	Canada	45	35702707	36	35702707
	China	46	1369860000	2	36048947
	Turkey	47	77695904	32	38847952
	Algeria	48	40400000	50	40400000
	Argentina	49	43131966	42	43131966
	Colombia	50	48128600	38	48128600
	Brazil	51	204316000	22	68105333
	Mexico	52	121005815	39	121005815

Of course, whether Granada is a true superpower in sports or it just happened to win a gold medal in the last Olympic games, remains to be confirmed by its average performance in the past few Olympiads. We can still confidently say that Jamaica is a superpower as it always positions itself among the leaders in our collective memory.
We also see that most of the top-20 countries were part of the ex-USSR and of the eastern block, a place where sports were boosted for decades, creating infrastructure, culture and, now, tradition.
In contrast, the self proclaimed superpowers, USA, China, Russia, Germany, France, UK, Spain or Italy, rank below the 20th place and are comparable to North Correa, Tunisia or Uganda.
Here is the country ranking according to the total number of medals won; this ranking is somewhat more reliable because it its based on a more general performance of the countries rather than on the gold medals won only.

		Rank of Medal Population	Population	Olympic rank	Medal population
Country	Grenada	1	103328	50	103328
	Jamaica	2	2717991	18	226499
	Trinidad and Tobago	3	1328019	47	332005
	New Zealand	4	4582280	15	352483
	Slovenia	5	2066638	42	516660
	Georgia	6	3729500	39	532786
	Hungary	7	9849000	9	547167
	Lithuania	8	2908227	34	581645
	Mongolia	9	3018084	56	603617
	Montenegro	10	620029	69	620029
	Denmark	11	5668743	29	629860
	Estonia	12	1313271	63	656636
	Australia	13	23845200	10	681291
	Croatia	14	4267558	25	711260
	Cuba	15	11210064	16	747338
	Belarus	16	9481000	26	790083
	Netherlands	17	16902500	13	845125
	Cyprus	18	858000	69	858000
	Ireland	19	4609600	41	921920
	Azerbaijan	20	9611700	30	961170
	Latvia	21	1985600	49	992800
	Armenia	22	3013900	60	1004633
	Czech Republic	23	10538275	19	1053828
	Qatar	24	2334029	75	1167015
	Sweden	25	9767357	37	1220920
	Norway	26	5165802	35	1291451
	Bahrain	27	1316500	79	1316500
	Kazakhstan	28	17458500	12	1342962
	Slovakia	29	5421349	59	1355337
	Gabon	30	1751000	69	1751000
	Puerto Rico	31	3548397	63	1774199
	Moldova	32	3555200	75	1777600
	Serbia	33	7146759	42	1786690
	Russia	34	146267288	4	1805769
	Finland	35	5478002	60	1826001
	South Korea	36	51342881	5	1833674
	Germany	37	81083600	6	1842809
	France	38	66121000	7	1944735
	Canada	39	35702707	36	1983484
	Botswana	40	2056000	69	2056000
	Switzerland	41	8236600	33	2059150
	Ukraine	42	42895704	14	2144785
	Italy	43	60788845	8	2171030
	Romania	44	19942642	27	2215849
	Spain	45	46464053	21	2733180
	Singapore	46	5469700	75	2734850
	United States	47	321006000	1	3116563
	Kuwait	48	3268431	79	3268431
	Japan	49	126910000	11	3339737
	Bulgaria	50	7202198	63	3601099
	Tunisia	51	10982754	45	3660918
	Belgium	52	11239755	60	3746585
	Poland	53	38484000	30	3848400
	North Korea	54	25155000	20	4192500
	Kenya	55	46749000	28	4249909
	Greece	56	10816286	75	5408143
	Colombia	57	48128600	38	6016075
	Dominican Republic	58	12957394	46	6478697
	Iran	59	78339400	17	6528283
	Tajikistan	60	8354000	79	8354000
	South Africa	61	54002000	23	9000333
	Uzbekistan	62	30492800	48	10164267
	Portugal	63	10477800	69	10477800
	Argentina	64	43131966	42	10782992
Brazil	65	204316000	22	12018588
Ethiopia	66	90076012	24	12868002
Malaysia	67	30583300	63	15291650
Turkey	68	77695904	32	15539181
China	69	1369860000	2	15566591
Guatemala	70	15806675	69	15806675
Mexico	71	121005815	39	17286545
Thailand	72	65104000	57	21701333
Afghanistan	73	27101365	79	27101365
Venezuela	74	30620404	50	30620404
Saudi Arabia	75	31521418	79	31521418
Morocco	76	33848242	79	33848242
Uganda	77	34856813	50	34856813
Algeria	78	40400000	50	40400000
Egypt	79	88522300	58	44261150
Indonesia	80	255461700	63	127730850
India	81	1271260000	55	211876667

The Blue Flag Beach (BFB) awards
Now let’s see how the propaganda goes with respect to BFB awards.
The number of BFB awards won by a country is supposed to indicate the level of respect for the environment shown by the local population (a cultural aspect of the nation), the level of investment of the local population and of the Ministry of Environment of the country, the natural beauty of the country’s coastline, and finally serves as an attraction for tourists; invest in BFB for tourism rewards, sort of thing.
All Greek newspapers as well as news web sites did not omit to report, the other day, that Greece was ranked 3rd in BFB awards. I was intrigued, because none of the articles mention the 1st and the 2nd country! No wander, Span was first and even Turkey, the fiercest competitor, did better than Greece! Say that to the Greeks, in full crisis, and you put them in deep national depression.
But what are those BFB awards and how are they distributed? It is true that the criteria are hard to meet. However, the manager of a beach must also invest, apply and pay for the right to participate. A first factor to consider is, therefore, whether or not the country invests in beach tourism, and lives from it at least partially. Otherwise, who cares for obtaining BFB awards? No matter how environmentally conscious and sensitive the northern peoples may be, for example, there is no way to convince tourists to go and bathe in Greenland’s (Denmark's), Alaska’s or Siberia’s beaches, So not many applications for a BFB award are made from such countries. This is irrelevant to whether or not the coastline of such countries is sound and their beaches deserve a blue flag.
Another factor to consider is country’s physical potential, i.e. the length of the coastline. Countries with long coastlines will naturally earn more BFB awards compared to countries with short coastlines and similar environmental sensitivity and touristic interest, and there is no merit whatsoever for the bigger countries in that case. The number of BFB awards must, therefore, first be standardised for the length of the coastline.
Then, in terms of tourist attraction, what matters is how far one has to travel, on average, in order to find a BFB and how crowded would that beach is expected to be. The first matter is a function of the length of the coastline, and the second, a function of the native population size. Suppose, for the sake of simplicity; that 1 person in 1000 goes to the coast at any time, the average crowding of a beach would be the population divided by 1000 and, then, by the number of BFB in the country.
The following table shows the ranking of countries by number of BFB awards, as this was officially published and promoted by the media.

		Rank of Blue Flag Beaches	Blue Flag Beaches	Population	Coastline (km)	Blue Flag Beaches per 1000000 Population	Blue Flag Beaches per 100 km coastline	Crowding (expected bathers per BFB)
Country	Spain	1	578	45828172	6777	10.76	7.27	6304
	Turkey	2	436	71517100	7200	3.90	3.88	18432
	Greece	3	395	11257285	13676	37.75	3.11	3620
	France(inc.territories)	4	285	65073482	4668	4.38	6.11	10650
	Italy	6	225	60067554	7600	3.75	2.96	20293
	Portugal	6	225	10627250	2753	21.17	8.17	1301
	Denmark	7	209	5515287	7314	37.89	2.86	1928
	Croatia	8	114	4435056	5835	25.70	1.95	2274
	United Kingdom	9	105	61634599	12429	1.70	.84	73375
	South Africa	10	82	52980000	2798	1.55	2.93	18082
	Ireland	11	74	4422100	1448	16.73	5.11	865
	Cyprus	12	53	801600	648	66.12	8.18	98
	Netherlands	13	41	16525751	815	2.48	5.03	3285
	Germany	14	39	82046000	2389	.48	1.63	50335
	Sweden	15	38	9283722	3218	4.09	1.18	7868
	Morocco	16	25	31538660	1835	.51	.87	36251
	Montenegro	17	19	624000	294	30.45	6.46	97
	Canada	18	11	33739900	202080	.12	.00	.
	Latvia	19	9	1990300	498	4.50	1.81	1100
	Bulgaria	21	7	7606551	354	.92	1.98	3842
	Dominican Republic	21	7	10090000	1288	.69	.54	18685
	Malta	23	6	413627	197	2.42	.51	811
	Slovenia	23	6	2038193	74	2.94	8.11	251
	Belgium	26	5	10754528	67	.46	7.46	1442
	Lithuania	26	5	3349872	90	1.49	5.56	602
	Poland	26	5	38100700	440	.13	1.14	33422
	Puerto Rico	26	5	3982000	501	1.26	1.00	3982
	Tunisia	26	5	10327800	1148	.48	.44	23472
	Norway	29	4	4830000	25148	.62	.01	483000
	Iceland	31	2	319326	4970	6.26	.04	7983
	New Zealand	31	2	4318700	15134	.46	.01	431870
	Bahamas	34	0	342000	3542	.00	.00	.
	Finland	34	0	5340806	1250	.00	.00	.
	Romania	34	0	21498616	225	.00	.00	.
	Russia	34	0	141867000	37653	.00	.00	.

This is how the countries rank according to the frequency of BFB per 100 km. That is to say, how many BFB a tourist will find, on average, within a radius of 50 km from any point on the coastline.

		Rank of BFB per100 km	Blue Flag Beaches	Population	Coastline (km)	Blue Flag Beaches per 1000000 Population	Blue Flag Beaches per 100 km coastline	Crowding (expected bathers per BFB)
Country	Cyprus	1	53	801600	648	66.12	8.18	98
	Portugal	2	225	10627250	2753	21.17	8.17	1301
	Slovenia	3	6	2038193	74	2.94	8.11	251
	Belgium	4	5	10754528	67	.46	7.46	1442
	Spain	5	578	45828172	6777	10.76	7.27	6304
	Montenegro	6	19	624000	294	30.45	6.46	97
	France(inc.territories)	7	285	65073482	4668	4.38	6.11	10650
	Lithuania	8	5	3349872	90	1.49	5.56	602
	Ireland	9	74	4422100	1448	16.73	5.11	865
	Netherlands	10	41	16525751	815	2.48	5.03	3285
	Turkey	11	436	71517100	7200	3.90	3.88	18432
	Greece	12	395	11257285	13676	37.75	3.11	3620
	Italy	13	225	60067554	7600	3.75	2.96	20293
	South Africa	14	82	52980000	2798	1.55	2.93	18082
	Denmark	15	209	5515287	7314	37.89	2.86	1928
	Bulgaria	16	7	7606551	354	.92	1.98	3842
	Croatia	17	114	4435056	5835	25.70	1.95	2274
	Latvia	18	9	1990300	498	4.50	1.81	1100
	Germany	19	39	82046000	2389	.48	1.63	50335
	Sweden	20	38	9283722	3218	4.09	1.18	7868
	Poland	21	5	38100700	440	.13	1.14	33422
	Puerto Rico	22	5	3982000	501	1.26	1.00	3982
	Morocco	23	25	31538660	1835	.51	.87	36251
	United Kingdom	24	105	61634599	12429	1.70	.84	73375
	Dominican Republic	25	7	10090000	1288	.69	.54	18685
	Malta	26	6	413627	197	2.42	.51	811
	Tunisia	27	5	10327800	1148	.48	.44	23472
	Iceland	28	2	319326	4970	6.26	.04	7983
	New Zealand	30	2	4318700	15134	.46	.01	431870
	Norway	30	4	4830000	25148	.62	.01	483000
	Bahamas	33	0	342000	3542	.00	.00	.
	Canada	33	11	33739900	202080	.12	.00	.
	Finland	33	0	5340806	1250	.00	.00	.
	Romania	33	0	21498616	225	.00	.00	.
	Russia	33	0	141867000	37653	.00	.00	.

Greece falls at the 12th place. Not too bad, but quite disappointing for a country that wants to be a world class cultural, environmental and touristic superpower.
And, finally, a tourist usually likes beaches with vital space. We do not like crowds on the beach.

Overcrowded beach in Italy
 
Overcrowded beaches in China
 
Overcrowded beaches in Spain

Overcrowded beach in Malta

Well, how do countries rank with respect to crowding? how many people do you expect to find in a BFB in each of the competing countries?

		Rank of Crowding	Blue Flag Beaches	Population	Coastline (km)	Blue Flag Beaches per 1000000 Population	Blue Flag Beaches per 100 km coastline	Crowding (expected bathers per BFB)
		Mean	Mean	Mean	Mean	Mean	Mean	Mean
Country	Montenegro	1	19	624000	294	30.45	6.46	97
	Cyprus	2	53	801600	648	66.12	8.18	98
	Slovenia	3	6	2038193	74	2.94	8.11	251
	Lithuania	4	5	3349872	90	1.49	5.56	602
	Malta	5	6	413627	197	2.42	.51	811
	Ireland	6	74	4422100	1448	16.73	5.11	865
	Latvia	7	9	1990300	498	4.50	1.81	1100
	Portugal	8	225	10627250	2753	21.17	8.17	1301
	Belgium	9	5	10754528	67	.46	7.46	1442
	Denmark	10	209	5515287	7314	37.89	2.86	1928
	Croatia	11	114	4435056	5835	25.70	1.95	2274
	Netherlands	12	41	16525751	815	2.48	5.03	3285
	Greece	13	395	11257285	13676	37.75	3.11	3620
	Bulgaria	14	7	7606551	354	.92	1.98	3842
	Puerto Rico	15	5	3982000	501	1.26	1.00	3982
	Spain	16	578	45828172	6777	10.76	7.27	6304
	Sweden	17	38	9283722	3218	4.09	1.18	7868
	Iceland	18	2	319326	4970	6.26	.04	7983
	France(inc.territories)	19	285	65073482	4668	4.38	6.11	10650
	South Africa	20	82	52980000	2798	1.55	2.93	18082
	Turkey	21	436	71517100	7200	3.90	3.88	18432
	Dominican Republic	22	7	10090000	1288	.69	.54	18685
	Italy	23	225	60067554	7600	3.75	2.96	20293
	Tunisia	24	5	10327800	1148	.48	.44	23472
	Poland	25	5	38100700	440	.13	1.14	33422
	Morocco	26	25	31538660	1835	.51	.87	36251
	Germany	27	39	82046000	2389	.48	1.63	50335
	United Kingdom	28	105	61634599	12429	1.70	.84	73375
	New Zealand	29	2	4318700	15134	.46	.01	431870
	Norway	30	4	4830000	25148	.62	.01	483000
	Bahamas	.	0	342000	3542	.00	.00	.
	Canada	.	11	33739900	202080	.12	.00	.
	Finland	.	0	5340806	1250	.00	.00	.
	Romania	.	0	21498616	225	.00	.00	.
	Russia	.	0	141867000	37653	.00	.00	.

Greece is still in a desperate 13th position. The only consolation is that its main competitors, Spain and Turkey, do even worse.

Assos beach in the island of Cephalonia, Greece.